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Comment by apo

Over the past decade, companies have taken advantage of low rates both to grow their businesses and reward shareholders.

Total corporate debt has swelled from nearly $4.9 trillion in 2007 as the Great Recession was just starting to break out to nearly $9.1 trillion halfway through 2018, quietly surging 86 percent, according to Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association data. Other than a few hiccups and some fairly substantial turbulence in the energy sector in late-2015 and 2016, the market has performed well.

"Reward shareholders" is code for stock buybacks - the practice of a company using ultra-low interest financing to buy its own stock on margin. It's an unsustainable way to manipulate the price/earnings ratio, and thereby make a company look like a better buy than it is.

Buybacks in turn have been a major source of funding for the stock market's unprecedented run:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156578-buyback-bubble-will...

I suspect those looking for a soft landing here haven't considered the reversible nature of this debt-fueled stock market rally. Nor have they considered the amplifying effect of debt on the upside and downside.

parent apo 8 years ago

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