Not sure why you're getting down voted for this since I was going to say the same thing. My feeling is that AGI is 10 years away, certainly no more than 20. That's coming from a pure computing power and modeling perspective, for example just by putting an AI in a simulated environment and letting it brute force the search space of what we're requesting of it with 10,000 times more computing power than anything today. Finding a way for an AI to focus its attention at each level of its capability tree in order to recruit learned abilities, and then replay scenarios multiple times before attempting something in real life, are some of the few remaining hurdles and not particularly challenging IMHO.
The real problem though (as I see it) is that the vast majority of the best and brightest minds in our society get lost to the demands of daily living. I've likely lost any shot I had at contributing in areas that will advance the state of the art since I graduated college 20 years ago. I think I'm hardly the exception. Without some kind of exit, winning the internet lottery basically like Elon Musk, we'll all likely see AGI come to be sometime in our lifetimes but without having had a hand in it.
And that worries me, because if only the winners make AI, it will come into being without the human experience of losing. I sense dark times looming, should AI become self-aware in a world that still has hierarchy, that still subverts the dignity of others for personal gain. I think a prerequisite to AGI that helps humanity is for us to get past our artificial scarcity view of reality. We might need something a little more like Star Trek where we're free of money and minutia, where self-actualization is a human right.
The real problem though (as I see it) is that the vast majority of the best and brightest minds in our society get lost to the demands of daily living. I've likely lost any shot I had at contributing in areas that will advance the state of the art since I graduated college 20 years ago. I think I'm hardly the exception. Without some kind of exit, winning the internet lottery basically like Elon Musk, we'll all likely see AGI come to be sometime in our lifetimes but without having had a hand in it.
And that worries me, because if only the winners make AI, it will come into being without the human experience of losing. I sense dark times looming, should AI become self-aware in a world that still has hierarchy, that still subverts the dignity of others for personal gain. I think a prerequisite to AGI that helps humanity is for us to get past our artificial scarcity view of reality. We might need something a little more like Star Trek where we're free of money and minutia, where self-actualization is a human right.