Just for posterity, to see if I was completely bonkers in 2018: I believe that it is possible to realize AGI today, using currently available hardware, if we just knew enough of the principles to create the right software.
Novel computational concepts have often been demonstrated on very old hardware, with the full knowledge of the tricks required to make it work. Often, more powerful hardware was required in order to pionéer the technology, and often the proof-of-concept on older hardware is too slow and clunky to have been a compelling product. But it's often been physically possible for longer than people realize.
I've never made a "long game" statement like this before, so it'll be interesting to read this comment about what I thought before in 2038 or 2048, if it still exists then.
Novel computational concepts have often been demonstrated on very old hardware, with the full knowledge of the tricks required to make it work. Often, more powerful hardware was required in order to pionéer the technology, and often the proof-of-concept on older hardware is too slow and clunky to have been a compelling product. But it's often been physically possible for longer than people realize.
I've never made a "long game" statement like this before, so it'll be interesting to read this comment about what I thought before in 2038 or 2048, if it still exists then.