This is an extremely solid financial statement. $150M in revenue, growing ~100% per year; I'd project a valuation between $3B and $4B.
Twilio, Mulesoft, and MongoDB are probably the best comparables here -- open-source and dev-tools based SaaS IPOs. All of these were very successful at IPO and afterwards, and even compared to these, Elastic looks great.
* They're growing at almost 100% per year which is incredible. Twilio filed for IPO growing at 70% per year. Mulesoft was growing at 60%. Mongo was growing at 50%
* Losing $50M on $150M of revenue. (Net margins of -33%). This is pretty reasonable and in line with Twilio and Mulesoft. MongoDB was significantly worse at -60% net margins.
With that kind of growth I'd imagine something like a 220M ARR when they actually IPO, and valuation of 15-20x that.
Twilio, Mulesoft, and MongoDB are probably the best comparables here -- open-source and dev-tools based SaaS IPOs. All of these were very successful at IPO and afterwards, and even compared to these, Elastic looks great.
* They're growing at almost 100% per year which is incredible. Twilio filed for IPO growing at 70% per year. Mulesoft was growing at 60%. Mongo was growing at 50%
* Losing $50M on $150M of revenue. (Net margins of -33%). This is pretty reasonable and in line with Twilio and Mulesoft. MongoDB was significantly worse at -60% net margins.
With that kind of growth I'd imagine something like a 220M ARR when they actually IPO, and valuation of 15-20x that.