> I think most tech companies severely overestimate the cost of false positives, particularly in the USA where it’s trivially easy to fire someone who turns out to be a dud.
I don't think that's actually true. People who are net-negative on a team may be very personable and hence emotionally difficult to fire. And of course the U.S. does have a number of protected classes, who can be very difficult & expensive to fire for cause (because the assumption is that they were not fired for cause). I'm a member of a protected class, and I often worry that it actually makes it more difficult for me to get hired: will folks be willing to take a chance on me, knowing that were I a jerk I could make life difficult for them? I'm not a jerk (I think!), but they can hardly know that!
I don't think that's actually true. People who are net-negative on a team may be very personable and hence emotionally difficult to fire. And of course the U.S. does have a number of protected classes, who can be very difficult & expensive to fire for cause (because the assumption is that they were not fired for cause). I'm a member of a protected class, and I often worry that it actually makes it more difficult for me to get hired: will folks be willing to take a chance on me, knowing that were I a jerk I could make life difficult for them? I'm not a jerk (I think!), but they can hardly know that!