The Dalio points might be relevant but overlaying a chart on top of another and drawing analogues based purely on aesthetics is bad finance. There's a reason hedge funds aren't pitching clients on technical analysis based trading...it's because technical analysis is the astrology of the investment world.
Also, everybody seems to be scared about the yield curve, but the problem with using an inverted yield curve as an indicator is that...while it may be a good recession indicator, recessions are a bad indicator for market performance.
Capital Minded (http://capitalminded.com) did an interesting chart in one of their recent briefings that showed stock market performance through the last 9 recessions. I'll try and dig it up and edit this comment.
But essentially half of the time, the market is net positive by a lot during recessions.
Also, everybody seems to be scared about the yield curve, but the problem with using an inverted yield curve as an indicator is that...while it may be a good recession indicator, recessions are a bad indicator for market performance.
Capital Minded (http://capitalminded.com) did an interesting chart in one of their recent briefings that showed stock market performance through the last 9 recessions. I'll try and dig it up and edit this comment.
But essentially half of the time, the market is net positive by a lot during recessions.
Hence why market timing is a fool's errand.