1) Keep in mind this was written for people scared about what's been happening with NK, especially when Kim and Trump were comparing e-penises over twitter.
The threat that many are worried about is some kind of warfare confrontation. Like the false-alarm missile alert in Hawaii that had people terrified for hours.
2) It's certainly not NK's primary game-theory goal to force a confrontation. They get the 80-20 value out of posturing (both inward and outward). But it could come to blows in a number of ways, such as escalating rhetoric causing a misunderstanding that snowballs, and so on.
An imperfect metaphor is two 10 year old boys play wrestling. Things start off fine, they escalate, one pinches another, the other play hits back, escalates more, and it's all "not real" until finally someone crosses the previously-unknown line, causing the other to hit back real hard and storm off.
NK's primary goal is to sustain themselves and the power they hold. They know that history and the world is against them, so they're "punching from their back foot", which is weak but can still hurt. Or like a trapped animal.
3) That thinking comes directly from the regime. It's the classic tactic of creating an enemy to focus/displace blame and justify unpopular actions, whether Steve Jobs obsessing over IBM, the Third Reich with jews, or Putin convincing Russians that America is out to get them.
4) The resistance is to the regime and the way their state is run.
There's a political theory that the US, South Korea, Japan, and China consider when thinking about NK: The sudden liberation of 22 million people who don't know how the world works would be a humanitarian disaster.
I think that's very possible, but one of those "better to bite the bullet now" things.
But the more likely outcome is that the resistance continues to succeed in changing local hearts and minds, one at a time. It's snowballing. Pulling on that thread can eventually lead to a moment like the Berlin wall coming down or the Arab Springs.
The threat that many are worried about is some kind of warfare confrontation. Like the false-alarm missile alert in Hawaii that had people terrified for hours.
2) It's certainly not NK's primary game-theory goal to force a confrontation. They get the 80-20 value out of posturing (both inward and outward). But it could come to blows in a number of ways, such as escalating rhetoric causing a misunderstanding that snowballs, and so on.
An imperfect metaphor is two 10 year old boys play wrestling. Things start off fine, they escalate, one pinches another, the other play hits back, escalates more, and it's all "not real" until finally someone crosses the previously-unknown line, causing the other to hit back real hard and storm off.
NK's primary goal is to sustain themselves and the power they hold. They know that history and the world is against them, so they're "punching from their back foot", which is weak but can still hurt. Or like a trapped animal.
3) That thinking comes directly from the regime. It's the classic tactic of creating an enemy to focus/displace blame and justify unpopular actions, whether Steve Jobs obsessing over IBM, the Third Reich with jews, or Putin convincing Russians that America is out to get them.
4) The resistance is to the regime and the way their state is run.
There's a political theory that the US, South Korea, Japan, and China consider when thinking about NK: The sudden liberation of 22 million people who don't know how the world works would be a humanitarian disaster.
I think that's very possible, but one of those "better to bite the bullet now" things.
But the more likely outcome is that the resistance continues to succeed in changing local hearts and minds, one at a time. It's snowballing. Pulling on that thread can eventually lead to a moment like the Berlin wall coming down or the Arab Springs.