I've been confused by this in the past too, so let me clarify for you.
Confidence intervals are for predictions of a given value. They are not for probabilities. It doesn't make sense to say, "I think she has a 70% chance of winning, plus or minus 5%." On the other hand, it does make sense to say, I think she will get 48% of the vote, with an interval of +-1%.
Confidence intervals are for predictions of a given value. They are not for probabilities. It doesn't make sense to say, "I think she has a 70% chance of winning, plus or minus 5%." On the other hand, it does make sense to say, I think she will get 48% of the vote, with an interval of +-1%.