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Comment by andrewla

The EMH is usually restricted to "available information". This hinges on what "available" means.

I would argue that until the search space was reduced to the point where it would be feasible to factor the secret before another digit is revealed, the information is not "available" in any useful sense. So maybe, in some sense, this helps us narrow down a definition of what "available" means, but since real-world price signals are rarely something that is deterministically computable, I'm not sure that this would help to clarify the EMH.

In my drug trial example, such an expert does not exist, but if we're dealing with mundane real-world stuff, then the assurances that the proposed $1B gift to a random company would actually go through would have to be factored into any strategy -- why would I bother committing computing resources to factoring the number when in all likelihood the billion dollars would not handed over because why would anyone actually do that?

parent andrewla 8 years ago

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