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Comment by wnissen

Pensions are cheaper than 401(k) accounts. I will say it again, this is simple actuarial math: Pensions are cheaper than 401(k)s. Three reasons: 1. Some people will die before they collect, others will live far longer. With a pension the former subsidize the latter, and everyone who needs income gets it. In a 401(k) everyone has to save like they're going to live forever, or risk running out of money. If you keep your withdrawal rate at 4%, you probably could live forever, but that means you need 25 times your salary saved. Twenty five years salary! A pension does not need nearly the same level of assets.

2. A pension can ride out a "bad" market because some people are paying in while others are paying out. In a 401(k) if you retired in 2009, you took a lifetime hit, even with a balanced portfolio. And you can get hit by a bad market and a long life at the same time!

3. Individual investors are morons. They buy overpriced funds and do a lousy job managing them. I am a moron, but at least I know it and invest accordingly. Vanguard did a huge study of all their individual retirement accounts, and number of trades that produced the best return was: zero. Every trade you make (statistically) is buying high and selling low. Pension managers aren't perfect, but they pay attention to expenses and don't chase the latest hot stock. Therefore you need much less of a contribution to fund a pension.

It depends on how you assess these factors, but Joey Schmoe is going to have to save 15% or more of her salary to get the same retirement security as a pension contribution of 10%. A pension is only unaffordable if those contributions aren't made, and then a wave of retirements sets off an unsustainable withdrawal. But that's not a feature of defined benefit vs. defined contribution, rather it's governments who use shady accounting rather than making a small contribution annually.

When you add in the fact that almost everyone who contributes to 401(k)s is well-off (half the population doesn't even have access), it is hard to imagine a method that is less likely to lead to comfortable retirements.

parent wnissen 8 years ago

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