>> Actually, what I’m saying is even stronger. I am saying that even if you have the edge, in the presence of the probability of ruin, you will be ruined. Even if you had the edge … If you play long enough.
> He wouldn't pass 1st year college math course with that one.
Seems pretty straightforward to me. Let's say you play a game with an edge where you win 2x your money 99% of the time. But if you lose once, you lose all your money (1% risk of ruin). If you play this game 70 times, you are very likely to end up ruined.
It’s a lot like smoking. One cigarette won’t kill you, but add up the probability cigarette after cigarette, pack after pack, year after year and the probability starts to skyrocket.
> He wouldn't pass 1st year college math course with that one.
Seems pretty straightforward to me. Let's say you play a game with an edge where you win 2x your money 99% of the time. But if you lose once, you lose all your money (1% risk of ruin). If you play this game 70 times, you are very likely to end up ruined.
It’s a lot like smoking. One cigarette won’t kill you, but add up the probability cigarette after cigarette, pack after pack, year after year and the probability starts to skyrocket.