In trading and the markets, you can beat the drums of war for as long as you want. At some point you will be vindicated. Then everyone will look back at you and think "genius!".
Ultimately, timing is everything. I can tell you markets will be X in Y time. Within reason, there's a good chance it will happen. Question is just "when?" The problem with strong views is whether they can be maintained. Being short in a rising market or long in a falling one can be painful. Markets have a way of wiping out your position (margin calls, psychological biases to losing money and exiting) longer than you can hold on.
In these guys' case, timing was even more important- because of options maturity dates. The article seems to allude to the fact that they rolled their position forward multiple times: "For about a year, Ibex had been buying options on the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, ticker SVXY."
So the real question is how much money did they blow on premiums before the final trade did well?
Ultimately, timing is everything. I can tell you markets will be X in Y time. Within reason, there's a good chance it will happen. Question is just "when?" The problem with strong views is whether they can be maintained. Being short in a rising market or long in a falling one can be painful. Markets have a way of wiping out your position (margin calls, psychological biases to losing money and exiting) longer than you can hold on.
In these guys' case, timing was even more important- because of options maturity dates. The article seems to allude to the fact that they rolled their position forward multiple times: "For about a year, Ibex had been buying options on the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, ticker SVXY."
So the real question is how much money did they blow on premiums before the final trade did well?