Comment Comment by vasaulys I'm not sure that's true.Andrew Gelman once mentioned that Black Swan events are actually routinely _overpriced_ via the Longshot Bias. [1] He had talked about this in the context of the recent Leicester FC win and the odds on that team. [2][1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias[2] http://andrewgelman.com/2016/06/02/30183/ parent vasaulys 8 years ago
Andrew Gelman once mentioned that Black Swan events are actually routinely _overpriced_ via the Longshot Bias. [1] He had talked about this in the context of the recent Leicester FC win and the odds on that team. [2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias
[2] http://andrewgelman.com/2016/06/02/30183/