It's of course possible that Bitcoin had less than a 1/10000 chance of hitting $10,000, and we're just living in an extremely unlikely world. But given that it _did_ happen, it's probably fair to bet that it was possible at the time to give it better than 1/10000 odds.
LessWrong is all about the Bayesianism, which means being comfortable with probabilities, even though it means you can never be "sure".
LessWrong is all about the Bayesianism, which means being comfortable with probabilities, even though it means you can never be "sure".