>That number is calculated without including info about any theory/evidence regarding the Higg's [sic] boson.
That's not true. You can see plots in the 2011 and 2012 papers that give these calculations as a function of mass. It's basically impossible to make a mass-independent calculation. (Not withstanding the fact that there's no Higgsless theory to do calculations for the background).
>As an example, I'd imagine detecting the Higg's [sic] boson at 1 eV energy levels is theoretically predicted to be even less likely than billions/trillions to one odds, therefore detector noise would be a more likely explanation for such results, despite the low p-value.
You're right, the p-value is much lower. Previous experiments have long since excluded such a low Higgs mass. Also, if the Higgs mass were so low, we probably wouldn't exist.
That's not true. You can see plots in the 2011 and 2012 papers that give these calculations as a function of mass. It's basically impossible to make a mass-independent calculation. (Not withstanding the fact that there's no Higgsless theory to do calculations for the background).
>As an example, I'd imagine detecting the Higg's [sic] boson at 1 eV energy levels is theoretically predicted to be even less likely than billions/trillions to one odds, therefore detector noise would be a more likely explanation for such results, despite the low p-value.
You're right, the p-value is much lower. Previous experiments have long since excluded such a low Higgs mass. Also, if the Higgs mass were so low, we probably wouldn't exist.