"It’s probably going to happen sooner than most people think. Hardware is improving at an exponential rate—the most surprising thing I’ve learned working on OpenAI is just how correlated increasing computing power and AI breakthroughs are—and the number of smart people working on AI is increasing exponentially as well. Double exponential functions get away from you fast."
I'm not convinced that an exponential number of people working on AI produces exponential advancements. Wouldn't we see diminished returns with each new person, presumably each one is less capable and less expert? I see AI experiencing a hype-cycle like disillusionment before seeing "double exponential" returns.
I'm not convinced that an exponential number of people working on AI produces exponential advancements. Wouldn't we see diminished returns with each new person, presumably each one is less capable and less expert? I see AI experiencing a hype-cycle like disillusionment before seeing "double exponential" returns.