Comment by prewett

If the stock market were truly random, then yes, all stock picking would be equally risky. But the stock market is a voting machine voting on the future of companies, and is definitely not random. So you could look at two stock picking strategies: 1) throw darts at the Wall Street Journal and buy whatever it hits, 2) buy new companies that are being used by lots of people in your area (the parent's strategy). #1 should give random results centered around the performance of the entire market. #2 will probably give better results, because it incorporates some information relevant to the voting, namely that customers like the product. Which company would you rather have: some random company or a company that people are willing to stand in a visible line for? If there are lines, either people need the product or they love the product, and either way that tends to correlate with profits.