> Systematic profits are feasible year over year... But only to the select few who are in the right product or looking at the market in the right way.
You seem to be falling for the same myth: That "certain wizards" can get +EV. Every casino on Earth makes money from this myth. I believe that there are no wizards in the stock market (or in business in general), and everyone's gains and losses vs the total market are for the most part random chance.
I'm reminded of the coin flip exercise one of my statistics professors did. Everyone in the class stand up and get a coin. Flip the coin, if it's tails, sit down, and the rest of the class repeats the exercise until only one person remains standing. Then interview that student and ask them how they became such a good heads-flipper, and what great strategy he/she used to flip so many heads in a row. This illustrates the survivorship bias we fall victim to when we look at someone successful and try to determine what wizardry they used to become that way.
You seem to be falling for the same myth: That "certain wizards" can get +EV. Every casino on Earth makes money from this myth. I believe that there are no wizards in the stock market (or in business in general), and everyone's gains and losses vs the total market are for the most part random chance.
I'm reminded of the coin flip exercise one of my statistics professors did. Everyone in the class stand up and get a coin. Flip the coin, if it's tails, sit down, and the rest of the class repeats the exercise until only one person remains standing. Then interview that student and ask them how they became such a good heads-flipper, and what great strategy he/she used to flip so many heads in a row. This illustrates the survivorship bias we fall victim to when we look at someone successful and try to determine what wizardry they used to become that way.