It is an unfortunate misconception that statistical probability can be used to predict the future.
Any time you extend a statistical model temporally it immediately becomes mathematically invalid since probabilistic statistics are only valid for a fixed population at a fixed moment in time.
Unfortunately business and government is rife with people predicting the future based on statistical models that have no more mathematical validity than reading tea leaves.
Any time you extend a statistical model temporally it immediately becomes mathematically invalid since probabilistic statistics are only valid for a fixed population at a fixed moment in time.
Unfortunately business and government is rife with people predicting the future based on statistical models that have no more mathematical validity than reading tea leaves.