The premise turns on the batteries: They are still expensive and need replacing every 7-10 years. If you're modeling the cost of ownership, you should be factoring in a new battery pack after 10 years. (Message to ye who covet 1,000,000 miles) Therefore, the rate of adoption will be somewhat modulated by the ecosystem of lithium ion materials and production. It's obvious Tesla sees this as a crux since they are investing billions in battery production.
Li ion Battery cost per KWh has already been falling at about -14% annualized over the last 10 years [0]. However, mass adoption of EV autos changes the demand side considerably and we therefore cannot assume the same rate of decline as we have seen recently. Perhaps we will, given the ramping production, but if they don't move more or less in step, prices could be somewhat stubborn.
Li ion Battery cost per KWh has already been falling at about -14% annualized over the last 10 years [0]. However, mass adoption of EV autos changes the demand side considerably and we therefore cannot assume the same rate of decline as we have seen recently. Perhaps we will, given the ramping production, but if they don't move more or less in step, prices could be somewhat stubborn.
[0] https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-alread...