Another Cultivate Labs person here. You're absolutely right re: predicting stock prices. A prediction market isn't going to beat the market consistently. People looking for that use case end up disappointed.
Prediction markets are more valuable to companies for things where there isn't already a large, liquid source of information flow. E.g. all the on-the-ground workers know a project is going to be late, but no one speaks up due to fear/office politics. Management thinks all is well since no one said otherwise.
A PM is an effective way of taking a bunch of siloed information/knowledge (in employee's brains), aggregating it, and presenting it to decision makers.
Prediction markets are more valuable to companies for things where there isn't already a large, liquid source of information flow. E.g. all the on-the-ground workers know a project is going to be late, but no one speaks up due to fear/office politics. Management thinks all is well since no one said otherwise.
A PM is an effective way of taking a bunch of siloed information/knowledge (in employee's brains), aggregating it, and presenting it to decision makers.