To me setting up a server/installation and maintenance is in the chore category of work so 1hr setup and say 15/min/month maintenance ~= 3 hrs/yr. Good programmer contracts can command $500/hr and the work might actually be fulfilling. 4hrs*$500 = $2000 pays for years of hosting.
Also you are not going to hit the top of HN on a regular basis as a casual blogger. Look at real data like your blog's historical traffic in the last year to get an accurate picture of the costs.
Also you are not going to hit the top of HN on a regular basis as a casual blogger. Look at real data like your blog's historical traffic in the last year to get an accurate picture of the costs.