This post [1] from that thread is the simplest presentation of the current and expected scenarios than anything I've seen elsewhere, including the OP. If they are able to run the main spillway at the current rate of 100,000 cfs without concern for further major erosion, the outflow outpaces anything but the highest inflows from the recent storms.
[1] https://www.metabunk.org/oroville-dam-spillway-failure.t8381...