His biggest (current) problem regarding SpaceX is that satellites aren't mass-produced.
If it was, buying a spot on a Falcon or on a Delta would be simple:
TCOFalcon = cost of launch + self-insurance-markup.
TCODelta = cost of launch + self-insurance-markup.
Falcon costs $1233/lb
Delta IV costs $8694/lb.
To compare apples to apples, to launch 50,000 lbs (a full Falcon FT 50,000 lb), a Falcon would cost 61,650,000, and a Delta IV would cost 434,700,000).
A Delta IV failed once out of 33, and the Falcon 9 failed three out of 29.
Therefore, TotalCostOfLaunch = CostOfLaunch+costOfSatellite * failureRate.
For TCODelta = TCOFalcon
CostOfLaunchDelta+costOfSatellitefailureRateDelta = CostOfLaunchFalcon+costOfSatellitefailureRateFalcon.
Plugging in Numbers,
434,700,000+c * (1/33) = 61,650,000+c * 3/29
c/33-2 * c/28 = 61,650,000 - 434,700,000
c = 5,100,126,428
Any satellite worth less than five billion (!! That's an _insanely_ expensive single mission) would be cheaper to launch on a Falcon, despite its failure rate
The only problem is that you have to wait for a new satellite
If it was, buying a spot on a Falcon or on a Delta would be simple:
TCOFalcon = cost of launch + self-insurance-markup.
TCODelta = cost of launch + self-insurance-markup.
Falcon costs $1233/lb
Delta IV costs $8694/lb.
To compare apples to apples, to launch 50,000 lbs (a full Falcon FT 50,000 lb), a Falcon would cost 61,650,000, and a Delta IV would cost 434,700,000).
A Delta IV failed once out of 33, and the Falcon 9 failed three out of 29.
Therefore, TotalCostOfLaunch = CostOfLaunch+costOfSatellite * failureRate.
For TCODelta = TCOFalcon
CostOfLaunchDelta+costOfSatellitefailureRateDelta = CostOfLaunchFalcon+costOfSatellitefailureRateFalcon.
Plugging in Numbers,
434,700,000+c * (1/33) = 61,650,000+c * 3/29
c/33-2 * c/28 = 61,650,000 - 434,700,000
c = 5,100,126,428
Any satellite worth less than five billion (!! That's an _insanely_ expensive single mission) would be cheaper to launch on a Falcon, despite its failure rate
The only problem is that you have to wait for a new satellite