"Real estate share of output near an all-time high" indicates that a new real estate crash is likely.
Median house price / median income is getting high again. Historically, that's around 2.2. Much higher, and people can't make the mortgage payments.[1] Then the mortgage default rate starts climbing. Then the bubble pops.
But it takes a long time. The time constants in real estate are many years long.
Median house price / median income is getting high again. Historically, that's around 2.2. Much higher, and people can't make the mortgage payments.[1] Then the mortgage default rate starts climbing. Then the bubble pops.
But it takes a long time. The time constants in real estate are many years long.
[1] http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/08/daily-c...