>> You have no choice but to accept that the major conclusions of these studies are true.
> I am surprised at the blind spot I had when first reading it – Kahneman’s overconfidence didn’t register with me.
Wow, this hits me pretty hard too. My impression of the book was of Kahneman being a subtle and humble thinker, in stark contrast to the bombast of Nassim Taleb of "The Black Swan".
A great post, if only for this and drawing my attention to the fact that the "hot hand" effect may actually exist... I've definitely used it as an example of when people are liable to see patterns in the noise :-(
> I am surprised at the blind spot I had when first reading it – Kahneman’s overconfidence didn’t register with me.
Wow, this hits me pretty hard too. My impression of the book was of Kahneman being a subtle and humble thinker, in stark contrast to the bombast of Nassim Taleb of "The Black Swan".
A great post, if only for this and drawing my attention to the fact that the "hot hand" effect may actually exist... I've definitely used it as an example of when people are liable to see patterns in the noise :-(