Comment by woodman

No, people suck at it - just look at your first sentence. There are a lot of likely reasons, my favorite being evolutionary pressure: 10,000 years ago two men see the tall grass twitch, while one scrambles up a nearby tree the other considers the cost in energy expenditure to flee vs the likelihood of a tiger attAAARGH. We can't trust brains to the point where we have to invent highly structured methods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_competing_hypothes...