>You're exactly right, except that I don't think ULA is going to have much trouble matching SpaceX's prices.
I do. In the '90s I was working for a company that was used to bidding cost plus contracts when DoD contracts pretty much dried up as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Management tried very hard to realign the company to compete in the commercial sector and failed miserably.
Changing the focus of a large organization like that from performance to cost is extremely difficult. Your people aren't organized properly, your finances aren't organized properly, and you have a cost+ culture that's hard to kick.
A much cheaper and safer strategy is to get Congress to wire defense contracts for you. ULA has manufacturing all over the place. What that means is job losses at ULA will be politically unpalatable. Beyond that, a logical argument can be made against putting all the national space eggs in one basket.
I do. In the '90s I was working for a company that was used to bidding cost plus contracts when DoD contracts pretty much dried up as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Management tried very hard to realign the company to compete in the commercial sector and failed miserably.
Changing the focus of a large organization like that from performance to cost is extremely difficult. Your people aren't organized properly, your finances aren't organized properly, and you have a cost+ culture that's hard to kick.
A much cheaper and safer strategy is to get Congress to wire defense contracts for you. ULA has manufacturing all over the place. What that means is job losses at ULA will be politically unpalatable. Beyond that, a logical argument can be made against putting all the national space eggs in one basket.