The "paradox" is that if player's batting averages, when high, get worse predictions and low averages are predicted to get higher, then these predictions work better than just guessing they will stay the same.
This doesn't seem like a paradox to me. Rather it seems kind of obvious. If the statistics are anything like a random walk then random walk theory (usually revisiting the starting point) would predict this.
This doesn't seem like a paradox to me. Rather it seems kind of obvious. If the statistics are anything like a random walk then random walk theory (usually revisiting the starting point) would predict this.