Off by a few orders of magnitude. Tihane-2 hit 33 pflops or 3.3*10^16 flops or approx 1/3 of the upper bound. Brain simulation is a snag, but it isn't our only snag.
Like you said, it's a general algorithm issue. We do not remotely understand the brain well enough to simulate it. We have very little idea of what an intelligent algorithm (other than brain sim) would look like.
Also, all of these estimates are based on flops and none of them consider bandwidth. We are a few orders of magnitude lower in gigabits/s than we are in flops. I personally think that is where the bottleneck is. 100 billion neurons with a 100 gigabit/second pipe could interact once per second and then only at the level of a toggle switch. Granted not all neurons have to interact with one another, but we are significantly behind in bandwidth and structural organization.
Bandwidth is intimately tied to processing capacity. I dont think the bandwidth will be there until 2045-2065 and like you say we have serious software/algorithm/understanding deficiencies to resolve before then. I would be very surprised if we get general AI before 2065 if ever. I do not expect it in my lifetime and would be pleasantly surprised if it happened.
Like you said, it's a general algorithm issue. We do not remotely understand the brain well enough to simulate it. We have very little idea of what an intelligent algorithm (other than brain sim) would look like.
Also, all of these estimates are based on flops and none of them consider bandwidth. We are a few orders of magnitude lower in gigabits/s than we are in flops. I personally think that is where the bottleneck is. 100 billion neurons with a 100 gigabit/second pipe could interact once per second and then only at the level of a toggle switch. Granted not all neurons have to interact with one another, but we are significantly behind in bandwidth and structural organization.
Bandwidth is intimately tied to processing capacity. I dont think the bandwidth will be there until 2045-2065 and like you say we have serious software/algorithm/understanding deficiencies to resolve before then. I would be very surprised if we get general AI before 2065 if ever. I do not expect it in my lifetime and would be pleasantly surprised if it happened.