The human brain contains about 10^11 neurons. Each neuron has about 510^3 synapses, and signals are transmitted along these synapses at an average frequency of about 10^2 Hz. Each signal contains, say, 5 bits. This equals 10^17 ops.*
This kind of nonsense is why no one should take Bostrom seriously. We did not then and do not know even begin to know how to write software to "simulate" a human brain, or whether such a task is even possible with modern day tools. Multiplying random neurobiology stats times 0.5 bits pulled out of your ass == AI in 2004?
We have "AI" that can drive a car or a copter, play Chess or Go, translate speech to text, do image recognition ... but what we mean by human intelligence is something different. And I see no evidence anyone has made much progress developing a truly biological-like AI even at the level of say, a mouse. Which according to Bostrom's math ought to be doable in a 2U chassis by now, right?
If someone does succeed in writing mouse-AI or dog-AI, I'd believe that could be scaled up to human-level intelligence very rapidly. But it's clear to me there's (at least one) fundamental breakthrough missing from the current approach, because my dog can't play chess or drive a car, but he has a degree of sentience and awareness (and self-awareness) that no 2016 AI even approaches.
This kind of nonsense is why no one should take Bostrom seriously. We did not then and do not know even begin to know how to write software to "simulate" a human brain, or whether such a task is even possible with modern day tools. Multiplying random neurobiology stats times 0.5 bits pulled out of your ass == AI in 2004?
We have "AI" that can drive a car or a copter, play Chess or Go, translate speech to text, do image recognition ... but what we mean by human intelligence is something different. And I see no evidence anyone has made much progress developing a truly biological-like AI even at the level of say, a mouse. Which according to Bostrom's math ought to be doable in a 2U chassis by now, right?
If someone does succeed in writing mouse-AI or dog-AI, I'd believe that could be scaled up to human-level intelligence very rapidly. But it's clear to me there's (at least one) fundamental breakthrough missing from the current approach, because my dog can't play chess or drive a car, but he has a degree of sentience and awareness (and self-awareness) that no 2016 AI even approaches.