I think Jaron knows what many engineers who have worked on AI know: That the external promise of AI is far more inflated than the capability of the actual technology. It's simply that when the current technology gets just complicated enough for the above-average person to no longer understand, everyone starts assigning magical properties and expectations to it. This results in short term over-valuations, which inevitably lead to disappointment [1].
Jaron has observed this several times and rightly seems to be tired of repeating the same naive cycle.
As I'm just now entering my second cycle and watching tech repeat itself again -- I'm beginning to understand his weariness.
Jaron has observed this several times and rightly seems to be tired of repeating the same naive cycle.
As I'm just now entering my second cycle and watching tech repeat itself again -- I'm beginning to understand his weariness.
[1] https://hbr.org/2015/12/the-overvaluation-trap