It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this:
FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school.
SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's owners collect a fee from Uber, Lyft et al.
THIRD, economies of scale and changes in perceptions towards the utility versus cost of owning cars causes people to stop buying them. Instead, they subscribe for access to a fleet–such as Uber or Tesla's. (Note: people already do this in cities like New York, where car ownership is relatively scarce.)
AND FINALLY, as distributed car ownership falls, retail locations for their maintenance go out of business. Barring massive public subsidy for car ownership, this creates a feedback loop that increases the cost of individual car ownership until it becomes a luxury.
1 will happen later than we expect. 2 will happen sooner, 3 much later and 4 drastically sooner. In fact, I think it will ultimately be 4, not 3, that drives a rapid, self-perpetuating dominance of self-driving cars within our lifetime.
[1] http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/12/Tra...
FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school.
SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's owners collect a fee from Uber, Lyft et al.
THIRD, economies of scale and changes in perceptions towards the utility versus cost of owning cars causes people to stop buying them. Instead, they subscribe for access to a fleet–such as Uber or Tesla's. (Note: people already do this in cities like New York, where car ownership is relatively scarce.)
AND FINALLY, as distributed car ownership falls, retail locations for their maintenance go out of business. Barring massive public subsidy for car ownership, this creates a feedback loop that increases the cost of individual car ownership until it becomes a luxury.
1 will happen later than we expect. 2 will happen sooner, 3 much later and 4 drastically sooner. In fact, I think it will ultimately be 4, not 3, that drives a rapid, self-perpetuating dominance of self-driving cars within our lifetime.
[1] http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/12/Tra...