UBS has done some modeling on this for their clients. They believe utility-based solar will take a hit for a 2-3 years and then rebound. The Fed ITC will drop from 30% to 10%. Making up that 20% cost change will take a little over one doubling of solar scale.
Rooftop solar will probably also take 2-3 years to make up for the cost lost to the subsidy reduction. It may even be 4. So after 2016, I'd expect rooftop prices to rise before slowly dropping, and getting back to 2016 levels around 2019 or 2020.
Rooftop solar will probably also take 2-3 years to make up for the cost lost to the subsidy reduction. It may even be 4. So after 2016, I'd expect rooftop prices to rise before slowly dropping, and getting back to 2016 levels around 2019 or 2020.